Clashing Clans: Analyzing the New Siege Cycle

When the clans of Tarkir debuted in 2014, their evocative presentation established enduring identities for each of the three-color “wedges”. Despite the interference of Tarkir’s resurrected dragon flights, the five clans have persisted, and in Tarkir: Dragonstorm they have recovered enough strength to once again make war at epic scale. 

But unlike their struggle for survival against the dragons, represented by the classic Siege enchantments from Fate Reforged, this time it’s neighbour clans warring over their differences and similarities. Knowing how impactful that original Siege cycle was in its day, I decided to take closer look at what effects might elevate these cards into some of Dragonstorm’s sleeper hits.

BARRENSTEPPE BREAKDOWN

The obvious place to start is the one new Siege we’ve seen so far, and how it compares to those which came before.

If it seems premature to assume that the new Siege cycle will cleave closely to the old, remember Wizards takes this sort of naming convention very seriously when it comes to modal spells. Charms always let you choose one mode, Commands are two, Confluences are three (or more) and allow duplicate choices.

In each case we’ve seen these terms grow beyond their original cycle and appear across other sets – the Siege template for enchantments also appears in Modern Horizons with Mirrodin Besieged. The common thread between Sieges is that they are mid-game enchantments (all cost three to five mana) with two possible effects. Their controller chooses which half to use for each copy of the Siege which enters play, which locks in that effect for as long as that copy of the Siege exists.

The actual text of these effects is very diverse, since they are intended to capture the identity of the different armies involved. But as the prolonged nature of a siege battle suggests, they tend to be sources of consistent value over time. 

Of the seven Sieges following this template, ten abilities are strictly once-per-turn triggers which aren’t tied to any specific game action. These cards create an obvious, steady pressure that promises to grind opponents down so long as you can maintain the status quo around them. As a white-black card it’s not surprising to see Barrensteppe Siege exemplify this attrition in both its modes! 

The Mardu mode is very literal, forcing opponents to trade bodies for your (presumably) less valuable ones, ala Grave Pact or Dictate of Erebos. Limiting it to only one sacrifice per turn is important for balance, but also does reinforce the “incremental” character of these Siege effects. The Abzan mode doesn’t actually deplete your opponent’s resources, but it’s still applying obvious pressure on them to act first before your army grows out of control. 

From a hard-nosed tournament perspective, four mana might be a little much to pay for either of these abilities on their own. So the viability of Barrensteppe Siege hinges on the idea of situational flexibility: that the same deck would have at least niche uses for both modes and prefer keeping that option open over playing a single, more efficient version of either.

That seems at least plausible for Barrensteppe Siege. Both modes are at their best when you have a large army of small creatures, and the impact of the Mardu mode is very dependent on the opposing boardstate. I can see a world where you maindeck this card mostly for the Abzan mode, but knowing you can whip out the Mardu side if your opponent tries to stick a lone dominant creature like Sheoldred, the Apocalypse.

These tight balance constraints and design conventions are why we can speculate with more than the usual confidence on the remaining Dragonstorm Sieges – there’s really only so many things they can be.

WE’RE NOT SO DIFFERENT, YOU AND I

It’s an interesting quirk of these cards that while the flavor shows the clans bitterly fighting, these designs rely on them having a significant amount in common with each other. Mardu and Abzan have distinct mechanical identities, but their overlap in the white-black section of the color pie is what Barrensteppe Siege is emphasizing.

So we can reasonably assume that there will be another four cards in this new Siege cycle, corresponding to the overlaps between Abzan and Sultai, Sultai and Temur, Temur and Jeskai, and Jeskai and Mardu. Assuming these abilities follow convention and lean towards once-per-turn triggers that reflect different clan mechanics while both working in the same kind of deck, what might we expect to see when those cards are spoilered?

Jeskai-Mardu Siege: 2RW

• Mardu: Whenever a creature you control becomes tapped, deal 1 damage to each opponent.
• Jeskai: Whenever you cast an instant or sorcery spell that targets a creature you control, that spell gains rebound.

Abzan-Sultai Siege: 1GB

• Sultai: At the beginning of your upkeep, surveil 2, then draw a card.
• Abzan: At the beginning of your end step, return up to one target land card from your graveyard to the battlefield tapped.

Jeskai-Temur Siege: 1UR

• Jeskai: At the beginning of your upkeep, add UR to your mana pool. Spend this mana only on activated abilities. Until end of turn, you don’t lose this mana as steps and phases end.
• Temur: At the beginning of combat on your turn, target creature gets +X/+0 and gains haste until end of turn, where X is the number of noncreature, nonland cards in your graveyard.

Sultai-Temur Siege: 3UG

• Temur: At the beginning of your end step, draw a card. Then create a 0/0 green Elemental creature token with trample and put X +1/+1 counters on it, where X is the number of cards you’ve drawn this turn.
• Sultai: Whenever one or more cards leave your graveyard, create a tapped Treasure token.

BESIEGED ENGINES

I always appreciate the ways new Magic cards are designed in conversation with past ones. As a fan of enchantments and of slower-paced play, the promise of gradually wearing down my opponent with Sieges is very personally appealing, so I’m as prepared to give these cards a chance as anyone.

But I am also sanguine about the declining role of these value engines in present-day Constructed decks. Cards that cost four or more mana and lack even the potential for immediate explosive impact are very tough to justify – just look at the gradual marginalization of planeswalkers in the metagame.

At one time, having these effects on non-creature permanents was critical so you could preserve the momentum they offer through a Wrath of God. But average efficiency of decks has risen to the point where you almost can’t afford to ignore a chance to add stats to the board – you just assume that if this card gets blown up, you’ll deploy an equally scary threat next turn.

The inherent tradeoff of Sieges having a slightly lower power ceiling in return for their versatility only deepens my concern. But we have at least seen some similar enchantments achieve success in the Bloomburrow Talents. So perhaps with the exact right peanut-butter-and-jelly type combination of modes, these new inter-clan Sieges will join their predecessors as fondly remembered staples.